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Bear Market
A Bear Market is an extended period of time where the stock
market is in decline of at least 20% from a previous high.
For more than a decade, the market enjoyed an unprecedented period of
rising prices, hefty profits and general excitement. (Bull Market) The
"bears" are now out of hibernation and here are a few things
to keep in mind during this time.
- A bear market is not a market crash.
Market declines are often associated with rapid, catastrophic losses,
such as the crash of 1929, the correction of 1987 and even the September
11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Most bear markets are not so dramatic. From
January 1973 to September 1974, the S & P 500 experienced a decline
of 50%. This did not happen in one swift movement. The process was stretched
out over 21 months.
- Long-term investors will experience one or more bear markets.
While the 1990's had some lagging periods, the bear market wasn't declared
until 2001, following general declines in 2000.
- Market timing is no more effective in a bear market than at any
other time.
It is never clear when the declining markets will make the up-turn.
Occasionally, short-term "corrections" do occur, in which the
market drops but recovers quickly (1987). These drops set off fears that
the market might be heading into a bear period. In such cases it would
be a mistake to sell in order to avoid further decline because the market
does recover.
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